Updated August 22 with more reports on when the keynote will be, plus the leak, the hoax and the reactions to it.

In September, Apple will surely release its next iPhones: Apple has chosen September every year since the release of the iPhone 5 (apart from when Covid made it a few weeks late in 2020). But when exactly? A new report appeared, shedding light on when the unveiling might be—though the leak has now been exposed as a hoax. And another report throws a whole other date into the mix. Let’s look at that first, and then the story of the fake leak and what it still tells us, putting the discredited nonsense to one side.

Plus, before we get to that, let’s note that the supposed leak has created quite the furore.

The reliable Filipe Espósito at 9to5Mac is reporting that the whole predicted schedule might be barking up the wrong tree and that Apple could unveil the iPhone 16 series a week earlier than anyone’s expecting. Espósito is basing this on the fact that Mark Gurman has reported that iOS 18 will be ready sooner than thought, so the release could also be earlier.

Well, Apple doesn’t need to hold back: if it can release the phone earlier, the sales of the new iPhone begin sooner, which is a good thing. Espósito says about an earlier unveil, “If that’s the case, Apple is likely to invite the press to the iPhone 16 event later this week—as the invites are usually sent to journalists two weeks ahead of the event.”

Okay, let’s hold it right there. While invites do sometimes go out that early, it’s just as often the case that the press are only invited just over a week ahead of time. As someone who has been lucky enough to be invited, I know that an early invitation is always welcome but not always achieved. Apple times the invites to create maximum effect. The report also points out that one thing that might make the generally preferred date of Tuesday, September 10 less likely is the already-scheduled presidential debate set for that night. You can read my predictions for what date the keynote will be at the end of this post.According to 9to5Mac, that could mean the unveiling would take place on Tuesday September 3 or Wednesday, September 4. I’ll say now that I think both dates are highly unlikely, as the huge tech show in Berlin, IFA, is swinging into life exactly then, and Apple wants a clear run at the news cycle without distractions from the likes of Sony, Samsung, LG and Panasonic challenging it for airtime in the tech space. It’s possible, of course, but, sorry, Felipe, I’m not sure that’s right.

Back to the stir the fake leak caused. Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman weighed in on X, saying “1) Apple event invites never leak in advance. That would essentially be impossible. 2) Shocked/not shocked this was covered by several publications. Less surprised that the original poster published it with zero diligence and a claim of authority.”

I don’t think Mr Gurman is attacking me, as my post, as you’ll see above and below, is about it being a fake invite and what we can still learn from the whole farrago. And I agree with him that due diligence is important (hence my inclusion of the comment from @lorevfx that they mocked up the invite). And Majin Bu continues to be polite in his responses, saying “Maybe I’m not very diligent, that’s true, however I’ve never had any claim to authority. I just publish as always the things I find or are sent to me and I think they can be plausible.”

And that’s what’s key here: a leaked Apple invite, to be honest, was literally never plausible. The content for the invite is almost certainly still being tweaked and in the hands of a tiny number of people at Apple.

Anyway, here are the details of what appeared online, what it said that was nonsense, what was true and where it leaves us.

1. The Leak

The report comes from prolific leaker Majin Bu who said on X that they had a leaked copy of the invitation to the next Apple event, when the iPhone 16 will be announced. It was clear to me that the invite was fake, but some of the content in it is convincing.

2. The Invite

There follows a mock-up of what the invite will be like and indeed, @lorevfx has now claimed on X that they created it. They said, “Fun fact: i made the ‘leaked’ Apple Event invite in less than 10 minutes using Figma and an Ai generated texture and I sent it to the leaker just because I was bored.” Majin Bu has now followed up with a rather gracious acceptance of being hoodwinked, saying, “I appreciate your effort though, if you need someone for graphics contact this guy.”

While it was an accomplished-looking item, it didn’t hold water. Apple has complete control over items such as the invite it sends out and it’s highly unlikely this could possibly leak.

3. What’s Plausible

Even so, there are details that sound halfway plausible, like the tagline “Ready. Set. Capture.” This would refer to the new Capture button coming to the iPhone 16 range, though this seems to pin things down a little too much. There’s also the choice of a bronze color which is predicted to be a new iPhone 16 Pro hue.

However, there are some things that I believe will be right on the money. First, I’m certain it will be an in-person event and it will be held at the Steve Jobs Theater in Cupertino. And it will start at 10 a.m. Pacific time. But I don’t believe anything else is correct.

4. Keynote Date

Wait a minute, I hear you say. What about the date of the keynote? Everyone is saying what this invite does, that it’ll be Tuesday, September 10.

That’s plausible, but not certain. I think there’s a bit more wiggle room about the date of the announcement. The fact that everyone has fastened on September 10 is part of the reason I think it may be, but it may not.

5. Release Date

I think the release date is set in stone for Friday, September 20, but the keynote date could be a day earlier or a couple of days later than the widely predicted September 10. We’ll know soon.