The reaction to Sunday night’s season 2 finale felt eerily reminiscent to that of its predecessor. So where does the prequel series go from here?

This story contains massive potential spoilers from House of the Dragon season 3 and beyond.

Any book-to-TV adaptation is going to have its ups and downs. Game of Thrones often struggled to turn an unfinished book series into an eight-season small-screen arc. Now House of the Dragon is trying to figure out how to turn just one completed book into four seasons of TV. As showrunner Ryan Condal explained in a recent press conference, “Nobody has infinite time and resources.” But when season 2 ended this past Sunday, fans felt as if those resources were mismanaged.

Story-wise, House of the Dragon wrapped season 2 not that much further along than where season 1 ended. Obviously, that’s worrisome. Granted, we’ve now met many of the new characters who will play a part in the war to come. But with Condal confirming that the series will likely end after season 4, I’m left wondering how House of the Dragon will have the time to adapt the remainder of the story.

Luckily for you, I’ve read all of George R.R. Martin’s Fire & Blood. At the cost of heavy spoilers, I’ve outlined below all the major events left for the HBO series to cover, where they may fall, and what audiences probably won’t see in the name of “resources.” For better or for worse, here’s what should happen next on House of the Dragon.

Season 3 Needs War—and Lots of It

Even if you haven’t spoiled anything for yourself about the story to come, you’ve likely heard of the Battle of the Gullet in the past few days. Condal called it “the second most anticipated action event of Fire & Blood” in his latest press conference. Defending the season 2 finale, he specified that he wanted to build anticipation toward the event, adding that “it should be the biggest thing to date that we’ve pulled off.”

If the Battle of the Gullet—thanks to how much stalling season 2 put viewers through—doesn’t occur in the season 3 premiere, then we’re all in big trouble. I understand what Condal means by having to manage resources—the Battle of the Gullet is a massive set piece involving naval warfare and dragon fire—but we can’t delay it any longer. As viewer disappointment can attest, a battle as large as the Gullet needed to take place in the season 2 finale.

HBO

Audiences finally saw Corlys on a ship, just for the season to end before the big battle.

It’s a costly victory for Rhaenyra (Emma D’Arcy), but it’s also the final nail in the coffin. Thematically, nothing says it’s time for war more than what happens after the Battle of the Gullet. That’s why it’s even more surprising that Condal & Co. shelved the event for season 3. Jacaerys (Harry Collett), Team Black’s heir to the throne, dies in the conflict. So when Aemond (Ewan Mitchell) impatiently flies off to fight Daemon (Matt Smith) at Harrenhal, Daemon and Rhaenyra leave Harrenhal empty and retake King’s Landing undefended.

The writers can fill the rest of season 3 with all the new characters. Daeron Targaryen, Alicent’s (Olivia Cooke) third son, has yet to appear despite several references to his existence. In the season 2 finale montage, we saw his dragon, Tessarion, flying over the Hightower army. We also saw Otto Hightower (Rhys Ifans) in an unknown jail cell. I speculated already that he’s being held prisoner by Lord Beesbury’s vengeful grandson on his way to Oldtown (say that three times fast!), and I suspect this small battle is how they’ll introduce Daeron to the story.

House of the Dragon’s writers will also need to decide which of the smaller characters to throw by the wayside. At the end of season 2, Jason Lannister’s (Jefferson Hall) forces are met by a host of Riverlords and Northmen. They all have great names, including Roddy the Ruin, Pate of Longleaf, Forrest Frey, Garibald Grey, Hugo Vance, Black Trombo, and Red Robb Rivers. I could see maybe two or three of those guys added to season 3—as they tear through Lannister’s army on their way to fight Daeron. Though most of these smaller conflicts are important, I could imagine the series largely backgrounding them.

How Could Season 3 End?

One of my fears is that the third season will save the taking of King’s Landing for the finale. It’s the halfway mark of the entire story in my eyes, so it needs to happen sooner rather than later—now that we’re in the middle of House of the Dragon. The tables are turned (a little) at the end of season 2, but they’re officially reversed in Fire & Blood after Rhaenyra takes King’s Landing. The writers may avoid it reserving it for the finale, however, because viewers might think that the series is over once Rhaenyra sits on the Iron Throne.

The only way to still build anticipation for the final season is to end with the Battle of Tumbleton. Why? Well, Hugh Hammer (Kieran Bew) and Ulf (Tom Bennett) betray Rhaenyra. Angered by their lack of notoriety and emboldened by war, the two dragonseeds are reportedly coerced by Larys Strong (Matthew Needham) into switching sides in return for more prestigious titles. “No doubt they hoped that King Aegon II might reward them better, should they help return the Iron Throne to him,” the book states. So after they help the Riverlords and the Northmen lay waste to a majority of the Hightower army, they turn on their former comrades.

Aemond and Aegon II (Tom Glynn-Carney) still live, of course, and now two of Rhaenyra’s mightiest dragonriders have gone rogue. As Rhaenyra finally sits on the Iron Throne in Fire & Blood, its sharp blades reject her. “Drops of blood fell to the floor as she went past, and wise men looked at one another, though none dared speak the truth aloud,” the text reads. “The Iron Throne had spurned her, and her days upon it would be few.”

HBO
Season 3 should finally show the war.

Season 4 Leaves A Lot of Story to Wrap Up

If season 3 sounds meaty, just wait for the conclusion. For starters, we’ll need to say goodbye to Criston Cole (Fabien Frankel). He’s actually killed before the Battle of Tumbleton in Fire & Blood, but at this point I imagine that HBO will keep him around through season 4. He hasn’t done much since the Battle of Rook’s Rest, and the network is apparently fine with that. I also believe this new version of Cole deserves a different death. Basically, he meets his end in the book after disagreeing with a furious Aemond and leaving Harrenhal with a host of his own. He’s immediately ambushed, and his army is slaughtered by Rivermen in an event called the Butcher’s Ball. Personally, I’d find it more satisfying if his own men did him in. It’s possible that having Ser Gwayne (Freddie Fox) accompany him—and even point a sword in his direction in the season 2 finale—foreshadowed this slight change.

Rhaenyra’s turn may prove even harder to adapt. House of the Dragon’s version of the character is far less cruel than in the books, and I can’t imagine that the series would have her make as quick a heel turn as Daenerys. But her decisions on the throne lead to massive riots in King’s Landing, just as Daemon leaves the city to challenge Aemond at Harrenhal. In a shocking battle, they kill each other along with their dragons.

Daemon’s and Aemond’s deaths feel like an event that can’t occur until the series finale. But in Fire & Blood, it’s only because such massive chess pieces are off the board that everything falls apart. Rhaenyra’s reign becomes so fragile that she’s forced to flee the city and abandon her throne. At Tumbleton, Daeron realizes that he’s next in line now that Aemond is dead. Plus, Hugh Hammer declares that he should claim the throne, since he now possesses the largest dragon in Westeros. But after a second battle in Tumbleton, almost everyone in that part of the story is wiped out. Addam (Clinton Liberty) stages a surprise attack with a host of Riverlords—and there aren’t many who make it out of the chaos alive.

Theo Whiteman//HBO
It’s possible season 3 has more in store for Gwayne Hightower.

What About the Series Finale?

In Fire & Blood, Rhaenyra arrives back at Dragonstone and finds the castle taken over by Aegon II. His dragon, Sunfyre, kills her in rather brutal fashion–and he retakes the Iron Throne not long after that. However, his second reign is even shorter than his first. He’s poisoned in a plot created by Larys and Corlys (Steve Toussaint), then replaced by Rhaenyra’s youngest son, Aegon III. Aegon III marries Jaehaera, Alicent’s youngest granddaughter, and the Dance of the Dragons comes to an end with the two sides reunited once again.

Though Fire & Blood covers much of this last chunk of detail, I can’t imagine it as anything more than a montage to end the series on House of the Dragon. Once Rhaenyra is dead, how many more episodes could HBO expect viewers to sit through? It sounds insane to do again, but House of the Dragon may change the ending entirely. Alicent’s story mostly fades away as soon as Rhaenyra takes the city, but their rivalry is more the beating heart of House of the Dragon than it is of Fire & Blood. Confusingly, Alicent basically surrenders to Rhaenyra in the season 2 finale and begs her to take King’s Landing. Lord knows where her story is heading next!

Theo Whiteman//HBO
House of the Dragon may take Alicent in an entirely new direction.

I’d also expect even more exhausting references to Game of Thrones. Not only on House of the Dragon moving forward but also on A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms. “House of the Dragon is a prequel to a famous story, one of the biggest, if not the biggest, television story of all time,” Condal explained in his press conference. “There needs to be some interconnectivity.”

If Alicent is going soul-searching in the woods, maybe she’ll see another vision of the future. If I had to take a guess, I imagine her vision might be the opposite of Daemon’s. Seeing Aegon II alive on the throne instead of Rhaenyra, she could reaffirm her original decision. It’s possible, even, that she ends up at Dragonstone with Aegon II when Rhaenyra is killed. As for further mysteries left unanswered, I’d say you that can stop hoping Laenor will ever return. There really isn’t any reason for Corlys’s son to re-enter the picture—and I think he should take the fact that he escaped with his life as a gift.

My biggest concern is that this is all far too much for House of the Dragon to cover. So little has transpired in the eighteen episodes released so far. It’s possible that the Tumbleton battles are completely thrown out, since none of the main characters are there for either of them. But even if the writers significantly change the story from here on out, the current problem is the show’s pacing. House of the Dragon’s slow strides are a point of frustration even for those who have no idea what happens next.

The most sobering reality is that House of the Dragon’s greatest enemy is the business of television. Condal promised fans that they’re “going to pull off a hell of a win” when the show returns. I want to believe that it can be done.